In this third part of our insight report on the next-gen gaming battle between the PlayStation 5 and Xbox Series X, our study of coverage data and audience response sees Sony and Microsoft hit a pivotal stage in their console launch campaigns.

The major, first-party games showcase is a crucial moment in the fortunes of any upcoming console platform, being the single event that most heavily cements the promise, ideals, and imagined future experience of a next-gen console in the hearts and minds of its potential audience. In terms of securing consumer buy-in, it’s the holistic vision presented here that earns investment. Major console showcases are where platform holders pave their path for the future, and attempt to entice the combined public, press, gaming influencer, and developer populace to dance along it.

With no E3 expo for the games industry this year - nor any shows at all, as a result of Covid-19 - things had to be be done a little differently than usual. And at this stage, both platform-holders had very different concerns, amid campaigns that were already starting to diverge in terms of ideology. To recap, Microsoft thus far had typified its Xbox Series X messaging with a great deal of tech-talk, elevating their new console’s dominant horsepower as its defining feature in lieu of revealing any games that yet showed that power off. Only third-party games had been showcased, with little talk of exclusivity, leading to a deflated consumer reaction.

Sony had taken a low-key, understated approach to discussing the PlayStation 5, letting tech-focused interviews drip-feed the console’s existence, before a sparkling, truly next-gen demo of Epic Games’ Unreal Engine 5 delivered the world’s first look at real-time, PlayStation 5 performance. Microsoft’s campaign had become steadily louder and more urgent in the wake of Sony’s quieter successes, but at this stage, was underperforming in terms of both coverage and sentiment. So what happened next?

June 2020: Sony deliver traditional big-show polish, with a convincing mix of content and clarity

Going into the summer Not-E3 season, it was Sony who dropped the first bombs, with an 11th of June showcase of first and third-party games as close in spirit to a traditional keynote show as could be achieved within the circumstances. 

You can read a full breakdown and analysis of the show here, but the topline is that Sony delivered a presentation and games line-up that - while relatively safe - did a good job of cementing the PlayStation 5 as a home of critically-acclaimed, returning fan-favourites, mainstream-appealing big hitters, and intriguing, enigmatic oddities. The same content mix that had built PlayStation’s success for the last few generations then. Not broken, no repairs. 

The third-party showing was strong too, with multiple high-profile games from external developers - such as the brilliant-looking Resident Evil 8 - being announced at the show, albeit with variable levels of exclusivity. Though in a sizeable coup, a significant swathe of Bethesda Softworks’ previously announced E3 2019 line-up was re-announced as PS5-only. With multiple games also doing a very good job of showcasing the PlayStation 5’s much-vaunted, long-doubted next-gen ray-traced lighting technology, the show presented a solidly convincing exercise in confident box-ticking, very much in line with Sony’s steadfast ‘future of gaming’ manifesto. 

PlayStation 5 games coverage dwarfs anything seen so far

The response? If pure coverage numbers are an indicator of how big a deal something is, then the PlayStation 5 games reveal was the size of a planet, and had a similar gravitational pull. 903 YouTube-native content creators delivered one response video each, while 45 YouTube channels attached to traditional media brands provided another 154 .

The combined total? 172.9M views across 1057 videos. 

To put that into context, with their initial PlayStation 5 tech demo - partnered with Epic Games and released in May 2020 - Sony beat the previous most successful news beat of the entire next-gen campaign (Microsoft’s Xbox Series X tech deep-dive in March) by roughly 30%, scoring 40.9M views over the old record of 30.1M This new beat was over four times bigger than that.

As for the particular causes of this graph-breaking performance, it’s likely that we’re looking at a perfect storm of factors. Having been the only next-gen platform-holder to so far showcase a real, visually-arresting, generational software leap running on its hardware, Sony had built a colossal amount of excited expectation for the potential quality of their next-gen games. And cleverly, they had done so without spoiling the surprise of any of the ‘real’ line-up, ensuring that hype, hope, and speculation for the ultimate reveal remained as high as possible.

With tangible, proven promise to latch on to, the always cautious, proof-hungry gaming enthusiast finally had cause to let loose the enthusiasm after more than a year of cagey speculation. And after Microsoft’s distinctly underwhelming third-party games showcase had smothered next-gen enthusiasm in the same month, the gaming populace was ready for something to be excited about. With Sony resurgent in gamer-friendly, next-gen sparkle, and Microsoft beginning to feel out-of-touch and disappointing in both its games and communication, it could also be argued that the dynamic between was starting to feel uncomfortably similar to the situation that saw the earlier Xbox One flail at launch in the face of the PlayStation 4.

PlayStation 5’s games reveal wins widespread critical plaudits, and (largely) positive community sentiment

Those were the factors that likely got people through the door in droves, but it’s interesting to note that the huge interest numbers didn’t automatically translate into furious enthusiasm for the entire presentation itself. In terms of the content creators and media outlets leading the conversation, the response was universally positive, with particular attention drawn to the convincing demonstration of the PlayStation 5’s rapid-loading SSD drive, the overall quality of games, and a perception that Sony’s approach delivered exactly what the audience was asking for. There was some note - particularly in the traditional media end of the camp - that many of the games demoed had 2021 release dates, and that the exact PS5 launch line-up remained uncertain, though this par-for-the-course next-gen query didn’t dilute the overall goodwill.

Down in the comments, a social listening analysis reveals that the tonal notes of excitement and enthusiasm running through the conversation are tempered slightly by a tentative voice and some degree of jaded discussion. Again, par for the course among the gaming community, so while Spider-Man: Miles Morales and the impress remake of action-RPG classic Demons Souls won equal praise from content producer and audience alike, the ‘Wait and see’ conversation was more pronounced within the community. In particular, battle-hardened gaming voices were quick to cut down the appeal of ‘nostalgia and flashy graphics’, and demanded to see a broader, bigger line-up of games before making a confirmed purchasing decision.

Little did they know, they wouldn’t have long to wait… 

July 2020: The Xbox Series X first-party games reveal is cosier, but more confusing

For Microsoft’s part, the Xbox Series X games line-up (revealed a month later, through a cosier, presented-from-home livestream on the 23rd of July) was even safer. Leading with the stalwart Xbox duo of Halo and a new addition to the perennial Forza racing series, the showcase (fully detailed here) then followed with a CG trailer for upcoming zombie-survival threequel State of Decay 3, before plunging into a salvo of smaller exclusives springing from the newly bolstered family of Microsoft-owned Xbox Game Studios. 

Feeling like a show designed to reassure the core Xbox fanbase with safe staples - while also advertising the improving state of Microsoft’s recently lackluster, in-house game development resources - the presentation delivered many of the right logos and said many of the right things, albeit with a fair degree of ambiguity over release dates for most of the games shown, or even the actual platforms they would appear on.

And here’s where things get messy for Microsoft. Because around this period is when the company’s greatly diverging next-gen strategy became clear (or not). Between widespread cross-platform launches and some explicit statements from Xbox management, this was the point that the Xbox Series X position shifted away from being a pure, next-generational jump, and re-identified as something new. A soft-transition, more akin to the traditional mobile phone upgrade model, where new, more powerful hardware would present a clear leap forward for die-hard early adopters, but would not gate-keep content from those who chose to join later.

All first-party Microsoft games, it transpired, would be released across last-gen and next-gen Xboxes simultaneously, as well as PC, and third-party developers would be encouraged - but not obliged - to either do the same and/or provide Series X upgrades for their games. Rather than focusing on pushing concerted excitement around a single, new console, Microsoft’s messaging seemed to shift toward promoting the notion of gaming within the more abstract Xbox ecosystem - comprising last-gen, next-gen, PC, and eventually the in-development xCloud streaming platform. In fact, during this period, Microsoft’s overarching, proprietary GamePass subscription system starting to feel a stronger brand than the Xbox Series X itself.

Xbox head Phil Spencer later confirmed that there would be no first-party Series X exclusives for ‘at least a couple of years’. In many ways this was an admirably progressive paradigm shift for the usual console upgrade model, albeit one whose communication was rather confused. Contradictory even, given the previous touting of the Xbox Series X’s market-leading horsepower. Coupled with the ‘debatable’ polish of supposed system-seller Halo Infinite, many were left wondering just what the purpose of the Xbox Series X actually was, by the end of the presentation.

Xbox Series X’s games reveal gets a negative social response, with limited silver linings

Indeed, a dip in to the content and social conversation around the Xbox Series X first-party games showcase reveals probably the most disturbing set of responses so far. The six biggest responses found in an analysis of conversational tone prove to be “disappointed”, “negative”, “critical”, “jaded”, “confident”, and “direct”. And those last two relate to the manner with which people expressed their displeasure, rather than any positive appraisal of the presentation.

The overwhelming bulk of conversational subjects revolve around a perception that the Xbox Series X failed to present a convincing case for a purchase, and that Sony’s momentum had become too huge to surmount, as Microsoft continued to fumble the ball. While there was support for the games shown off in some quarters, it was largely negated by the awareness that no-one would need an actual Xbox Series X in order to play them. ‘I’ll play them on PC instead’ became a common response, an ironic flip from the earlier sentiment that the Xbox Series X’s power might see it cut into the PC gaming market.

In terms of the conversation that specifically discussed purchasing intent, things are even more stark. Comments here are dominated by a sentiment that, if anything, Microsoft’s presentation convinced people to buy a PlayStation 5, with even Halo fans stating that the showing of Halo Infinite was not enough to make them purchase the console. 

Looking at the sentiment and subject matter within video content produced around this time, the low-quality, unpolished finish of that Halo demo proves a particular point of consternation. The dated, unfinished visual treatment of the game caused real concern across the board, and while there was general praise for the broad, overall suite of games shown off, there was a resounding feel that, amid all the confusion over release platforms and muddied hardware value propositions, this presentation was a bigger sell for GamePass rather than real next-gen gaming. 

That point stuck through the consumer comments too, with feelings split over whether the pivot to GamePass promotion proved a unique point of value for the Xbox brand, or a betrayal of the values of those looking forward to tangible next-gen excitement. Whichever side you come down on, it’s highly telling that of all the comments discussing GamePass, only 31% expressed intent to sign up to the ‘Netflix for games’ service while buying an Xbox Series X, with 69% stating that they would purchase the subscription standalone. A small pool also expressed desire to sign up to GamePass while instead buying a PS5.

Xbox Series X coverage and audience data implies a failure to raise interest, except among the hardcore

In our last article, we questioned what lasting damage Microsoft’s underwhelming, earlier third-party games show might have on long-term enthusiasm for the Xbox Series X. Here, we seem to get our answer: A lot of damage. Where Sony’s big June event had more than quadrupled the already record coverage numbers won with its last campaign beat, Microsoft simply managed to repeat a slight variant of an already comparatively weak response. 

Where the May showcase had scored a total of 14.9M views over 137 videos, July’s ‘main event’ managed only 12.4M views over 111 pieces of content. Rather bleak viewing, given the expected increase in interest in the critical, first-party line-up, but highly disturbing in light of the PS5’s accelerating, runaway hype-train. There is a small silver lining, in that those numbers do belie a small increase in per-video views, from 108,759 to 111,711, implying that despite the lack of wide-audience interest, the core fanbase of loyal Xbox enthusiasts remained ready to lap up fresh news and content.

Still, at this point, the combined next-gen campaign to-date looks like this: 

And then, a few weeks later, Halo Infinite was officially delayed from the console’s ‘Holiday’ 2020 launch window to an indeterminate period in 2021. It was official. The Xbox Series X would launch without the platform’s biggest franchise. While sentiment among traditional press and content creators was that this was the right thing to do, given the state of the game’s first public showing, there was now real, widespread worry among YouTube content producers that the Xbox Series X was in serious trouble.

GamePass talk became even more pronounced, being seen by content producers and community alike as the new saving grace of the Xbox brand, and a safety net for those who had chosen to buy an Xbox Series X at launch. However, in tandem with Microsoft’s newly confirmed policy of no longer pushing for exclusive game content in general, social listening indicates that the delay of Halo suddenly made the launch-day value of the Xbox Series X a matter of extreme doubt among consumers, with the majority of community conversation now expressing no perceived reason to buy the console upon release.

So was Xbox doomed? Not yet. Neither console yet had a price or release date, and both platform-holders were stubbornly avoiding announcing either, as the extended next-gen console campaign segued into a Mexican stand-off of launch details. And not only was that vital, and potentially very persuasive, information still up in the air, but Microsoft and Sony each still had a couple of very surprising bullets to fire before the campaign would be done. Shots that would ignite the next-gen story with brand new, rather shocking moments of excitement, and make the whole affair even more complex and intriguing than it already was.

But that, naturally, is a story for the next article.

APPENDIX

WHAT DATA DID WE USE, AND HOW DID WE CHOOSE IT?

For the purposes of this study, we defined our data sources as follows:

• All YouTube video sources had to be unofficial channels (that is, not run by either PlayStation or Xbox), and sponsored content would not be included.

• YouTube content creator channels had to meet a minimum criteria of 20,000 subscribers in order to be surveyed.

• YouTube channels run by traditional media outlets had to meet a minimum criteria of 20,000 subscribers in order to be surveyed.

• To be counted as a video response to a PlayStation 5 or Xbox Series X news beat, a video had to focus primarily on the individual console at hand, and not discuss its rival.

• PlayStation 5 content was defined using the terms “PS5”, and “PlayStation 5”. “PlayStation” alone was excluded in order to refine content accuracy.

• “Xbox Scarlett” and “Project Scarlett” were used to accrue data for the June 2019 period, before “Xbox Series X” was adopted as the dominant search term from December 2019 onward.

• For ‘neutral’ social listening, we drew audience conversation data from the YouTube channels of four specifically chosen, prominent, global multiformat videogames and tech media brands - IGN, GameSpot, GamesRadar, and Digital Foundry - in order to minimise the effect of audience bias.

As for the tools we used, video volume, audience, and engagement detail was drawn by Fourth Floor’s Insight team, using our access to Tubular Labs technology. All social listening and conversational tone analysis was performed using a combination of Fourth Floor’s own in-house technology and IBM’s Watson tone analyser.