2021 has been many things, none of them what we really wanted (ie. an end to the pandemic). But just by arriving after 2020, it has been a record year for influencer marketing. Though at this point they’re all record years. One day that will stop, but by that point influencer marketing will just be “marketing”, and we’ll all be living our best lives strapping on NFTs and riding off into a metaverse world sunset. 

But, what of 2022? Well, it will certainly be a record year. But what kind of records will we break, and in what direction will influencer marketing specifically - and the creator economy more generally - head? 

We’ve gathered experts from around the globe and added our in-house expertise to come up with some thoughts for you. 

TL:DR

• More purpose-led campaigns with influencers as partners, not human billboards

• Rise in offline community engagement with creator communities 

• Continued emergence of virtual influencers

• A line drawn between reality TV celebrities and genuine creators

• Agencies hiring influencers to work with influencers

Matt Gielen 

Founder and CEO of  Electric Monster and Little Monster Media Co, the brain behind Cracking The YouTube Algorithm, and the person who has done the most to help creators and brands understand what works on Google’s platform. 

“I think we'll see the M&A market continue to heat up in 2022. We'll also see a massive increase in offline/IRL consumption led by creators and digital business, from merchandise to experiences. 2022 should be a banner year for people and companies with robust direct access to highly engaged fandoms.” 

Scott Guthrie 

Host of the Influencer Marketing Lab podcast, scribe behind our own weekly digest,  and the influencer’s influencer. Also found at https://sabguthrie.info/. 

“Our industry’s revenue will continue its sharp up-tick. By the close of 2021 it’s likely digital advertising will have grown 30.5% globally - excluding U.S. political advertising. Influencer marketing will over-index in its share of that growth. 

“We’ll see more brands running purpose-led campaigns in 2022. Firms will wear their declared values and beliefs on their sleeves, especially around sustainability. But they should be wary of the ‘say-do gap’. Firms need to ensure their green claims aren’t misleading.

Failure to do so will risk getting those brands called out on social media. In the UK particularly, there is more than reputational harm at stake. The Competition and Markets Authority has the power to take offenders to court for potential breaches of consumer protection law. 

“Towards the end of 2022, we’ll see firms adapting their influencer campaigns for fizzy drinks, chocolate bars, crisps, ice-cream, and pizzas, as they prepare for the high-fat, sugar, and salt (HFSS) ad ban. 

Virtual influencers will be a talking point again, as the world chats in finitum about the Metaverse and brands attempt to appear relevant. Brands and creators alike will look to the opportunities that Web3 and DAOs represent.”

Rupa Shah 

Founder of Hashtag Ad Consulting, ASA CAP Panel member, and thought-leader for influencer marketing legal and regulatory issues. 

“My hope for 2022 is that the glaring disparity between influencer advertising by reality TV celebs and influencer marketing by digital-first content creators will be acknowledged by government, regulators, and the mainstream media. 

“The last few years have seen so much emphasis placed on non-compliance by the reality crowd, with seemingly little understanding and appreciation of how far the content creation industry has moved on. 2021 saw the DCMS take a closer look at influencer culture, and I expect 2022 to yield the results of that intelligence-gathering and provide regulators a clear strategy on how to improve trust and transparency in the industry without stifling creativity.”

Jason Falls 

Author of Winfluence the book, and host of the Winfluence podcast. Speaker, digital marketing thought-leader, and owner of the most sonorous voice currently talking about influencer marketing. 

“I firmly believe 2022 is going to see a rapid integration of influencer creative, meaning that more and more influencers and content creators are going to be hired in full-time positions to lead creative for agencies and brands. 

“We're seeing it at the highest, celebrity levels now with Kendall Jenner, Cardi B, and others, but why would an advertising agency turn to traditional ad creatives for TikTok ideas unless they had a TikTok pedigree? They wouldn't. They'd go hire someone who has that, and plug them in across client accounts. It just makes sense. 

“But there will be some internal strife to work through as well. Agency creatives won't like it much. And influencers will have to adjust to someone controlling their output with more granularity. It's going to happen. I didn't say it would be pretty.”

From inside Fourth Floor:

Emma Park

Creator solutions manager

“We’ll see the continuing rise in the popularity of VTubers as the technology becomes increasingly more accessible, alongside more diverse voices coming to the fore. 

“While it would be great to shake up the creator sphere overnight, many creators - and businesses that work with creators - have been working hard to promote diversity and challenge what audiences consider typical, consciously or not.”

Dave Bryan

Partnerships director

“NFTs and crypto will begin creeping more and more into influencer marketing, especially via the gaming industry, as they aim for the critical mass tipping point generally needed for mass adoption, much like smartphones, TikTok, instant messaging before them.”

Abi Bottomley

Head of commerce

“In the creator commerce space we'll see an uptick in live selling, especially on social platforms, and greater adoption of 3D technologies (where consumers can try on items digitally).

“At the same time, consumer behaviour will lean into community over convenience. Creators, with their inherently community-focused, relationship-oriented nature, are naturally positioned to be an integral and growing part of this shift, both with their own audiences and via wider relationships with retail brands.”

Dean Smith

Commercial director

“Brands will look to in-house their influencer marketing as they turn to long-term partnerships over one-off activations. External agencies/partners will need to find a way to help them do that, or risk falling by the wayside. 

“Creators will also continue their evolution into brands, and those who will see the greatest success will be those who add value to their community rather than just trying to flip a profit from them.”

Chris Spearman

Head of delivery 

“YouTube and Twitch will continue to trade blows by signing up the biggest talent on each other's platforms exclusively, but the platform that creates the best conditions for new creators to build audiences - discoverability, and the best ability to grow and safeguard a community - will end up having the most successful year.”

David Houghton

Creative lead

"Influencer marketing is maturing as a medium, but so is the wider creator economy. With more creators taking control of their income via alternative means - such as side-businesses and direct-to-community revenue models - future-looking brand deals must offer more incentive than money and 'exposure'. 

"Deeper and longer-term creative relationships must be driven by thoughtful and less constrained ambition, the focus shifting from simple product promotions to broader and more meaningful creative projects developed via shared resources."

Mark Cantwell

Product director

“There will be consolidation in the platform market, with several of the bigger players trying to buy their way into being the go-to influencer marketing campaign management platform. This will lead to a split in the market, with one side generating homogenised, vanilla, platform-driven IM activity, and the other creating high-end, creator and community-engaging content narratives that blend artistry and science. 

“This happened in the ad tech market 5 years ago, and was essentially the death knell for independent web publishing.”  

Jamie Dolling

Strategist

“The obvious: You don’t impenetrably rebrand the biggest social media network, like, ever and not at least take a punt at delivering some of your stated vision within a calendar year. Meta has already made a clumsy pass at what that transformation might look like (all that’s missing here is a kid fishing from a crescent moon), but if this part of the puzzle can be put in place, it would swiftly solidify the notion of a Metaverse to be built by generations to come as per their emerging needs. Covid has shown us that facilitating education in the face of uncertainty is of absolute importance, so provided it’s paying attention, Meta will move to start this process in 2022. 

“The unlikely: Google will get its take on gaming right. Let’s gloss over Stadia. Let’s not dwell on Twitch being handed its business on a silver salver, or get into the weeds of Facebook Gaming’s watchtime counting methods compared to YouTube. Let’s focus on what they’re going to get right, as unlikely and mysterious as any such possibility may seem. Because it’s going to happen in 2022. And when it does, I will have predicted it.

“The blatantly self-serving: At Fourth Floor, we are committed to the deepest possible understanding of the people who play games, why they play them, and what gaming represents in their wider lives. It’s ridiculous for a $150bn-plus global business to still be perceived as consisting exclusively of adolescents in need of a good bath, but - especially given the realisation of my above prediction - any remaining dregs of that perception will be transformed in 2022. The fact that this will simultaneously prove that Fourth Floor Creative have been right about everything all along is simply co-incidental. If, obviously, convenient.”

Agree with our experts? What do you think will happen in 2022? Let us know at https://www.linkedin.com/company/fourth-floor-creative.